At least 17 party-list groups poised to win
Inquirer
Last updated 05:26am (Mla time) 05/11/2007
MANILA, Philippines — At least 17 of the 93 party-list groups could win seats in the House of Representatives, with Bayan Muna topping the list followed by Akbayan, according to results of a nationwide survey conducted by Social Weather Stations on May 2-4.
Bayan Muna had 8.4 percent of the votes, followed closely by Akbayan with 8.2 percent.
Although the number of votes they got last week declined from last month’s 10.4 percent (Bayan Muna) and 9.8 percent (Akbayan), the two groups could retain their current three seats each.
Fifteen more groups have a statistical chance of winning at least one seat each in the House.
Under the 2-percent rule, a group that gets 2 percent of the votes cast for the party-list system is entitled to one seat in the House, according to SWS. A group can have a maximum of three seats, or 6 percent of the votes.
Under this rule, the 17 party-list groups could take a total of 23 seats in the House.
However, the Supreme Court’s “Veterans Formula,” in its October 2000 decision in Veterans Federation Party v the Commission on Elections, provides that the allocation of seats to party-list groups depends on the total number of votes garnered by the top party-list.
Other party-list groups that made the cut were Luzon Farmers Party (Butil, 4.9 percent), Buhay Hayaan Yumabong (Buhay, 4.2 percent), Gabriela (3.9 percent), Advocacy for Teacher Empowerment Through Action, Cooperation and Harmony Toward Educational Reforms Inc. (A Teacher, 3.6 percent) and Ahon Pinoy (Ahon, 3.5 percent);
Citizen’s Battle Against Corruption (Cibac, 3.4 percent), Aangat Tayo (AT, 3 percent), Agricultural Sectoral Alliance of the Philippines Inc. (Agap, 2.7 percent), Anakpawis (2.7 percent) and Ahonbayan (2.6 percent);
Cooperative-Natcco Network Party (Coop-Natcco, 2.3 percent), Abakada Guro (Abakada, 2.2 percent), Kabataan (2.1 percent), Anak Mindanao (Amin, 2.1 percent), and Kapatiran ng mga Nakulong na Walang Sala Inc. (Kakusa, 2 percent).
Butil and Buhay were each poised to get two seats, while the rest of the groups would each get one seat, according to SWS.
However, if the Veterans Formula were applied, all the groups would get only one seat each, except for Bayan Muna, which would still get three seats.
Poised to retain their current seats in the House were Buhay (2), and Gabriela, Cibac, Coop-Natcco and Amin (1 each).
Anakpawis is poised to retain only one of the two seats it currently holds.
Nominees
The nominees of Bayan Muna are Satur Ocampo, Teodoro Casiño and Neri Colmenares.
Akbayan — Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel, Walden Bello and Enrico Dayanghirang.
Butil — Leonila Chavez, Agapito Guanlao and Herminio Ocampo.
Buhay — (1st set) Hans Christian Señeres, Hermenegildo Dumlao and Antonio Bautista; (2nd set) Rene Velarde, Ma. Carissa Coscolluela and Wiliam Irwin Tieng.
Gabriela — Liza Maza, Luzviminda Ilagan and Flora Belinan.
A Teacher — Mariano Piamonte, Ulpiano Sarmiento III and Carolina Porio.
Ahon — Dante Francis M. Ang II, Bernardo F. Ople and Ernesto Herrera III.
Cibac — Emmanuel Joel Villanueva, Luis Lokan Jr. and Cinchona Gonzales.
Aangat Tayo — Daryl Grace Abayon, Eden Debulgado Rivera and Meriam Lasta Paylaga.
Agap — Nicanor Briones, Cesar Cobrador and Rosalinda Dacanay.
Anakpawis — Crispin Beltran, Rafael Mariano and Joel Maglunsod.
Ahonbayan — Edgar Catarongan, Edgardo Manda and Raden Sakaluran.
Coop-Natcco — Guillermo Cua, Jose Ping-ay and Cresente Paez.
Abakada — Jonathan de la Cruz, Samson Alcantara and Cecilia Dy.
Kabataan — Raymond Palatino, Enrico Almonguerra and Mary Francis Veloso.
Amin — Mujiv Hataman, Ariel Hernandez and Arnel Arbison.
Kakusa — Ranulfo Canonigo, Omar Rivera and Ma. Jesusa Sespeñe.
Only 53 percent of voters
The last installment in the three-part series of SWS surveys with the Philippine Daily Inquirer, parent company of INQUIRER.net, as its exclusive media partner also found that 53 percent of some 45 million registered voters chose a party-list group from the official Commission on Elections list. This was equivalent to 23.9 million votes.
The survey used face-to-face interviews with 1,200 registered voters divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao.
Just below threshold
Groups “just below the threshold but within statistical reach” include Abanse! Pinay (1.9 percent), Cocofed-Philippine Coconut Producers Federation Inc. (Cocofed, 1.8 percent), Abono (1.7 percent), Advocates for Special Children and the Handicapped Movement (Asahan Mo, 1.5 percent), Alagad (1.5 percent), Veterans Freedom Party (VFP, 1.5 percent), 1-United Transport Koalisyon (1-Utak, 1.5 percent) and Suara Bangsamoro (Suara, 1.5 percent).
Alyansang Bayanihan ng Magsasaka, Manggagawang Bukid at Mangingisda-Adhikain at Kilusan ng Ordinaryong Tao (Aba-Ako, 1.4 percent), Alyansa ng Mamamayang Naghihirap (1.3 percent) and Association of Philippine Electric Cooperative (Apec, 1.3 percent).
Angat Ating Kabuhayan Pilipinas Inc. (Anak, 1.2 percent), Akbay Pinoy OFW-National Inc. (APOI, 1.1 percent), Bagong Alyansang Tagapagtaguyod ng Adhikaing Sambayanan (BATAS, 1 percent) and Assalam Bangsamoro People’s Party (Assalam, 1 percent).
“Allowing for sampling error, with a survey outcome of 3 percent or more, it is statistically safe to say that a party has truly reached the threshold of 2 percent. On the other hand, a survey outcome of below 1 percent makes it statistically very unlikely that the threshold has in truth been reached,” SWS said in a statement released Thursday.
Incumbent party-list groups that scored below the statistical threshold include An Waray (0.6 percent), Alliance of Volunteer Educators (AVE, 0.1 percent), Ang Laban ng Indiginong Filipino (ALIF, 0 percent) and Partido ng Manggagawa (PM, 0 percent).
An Waray is currently represented by Florencio Noel; AVE by Eulogio Magsaysay; ALIF by Acmad Tomawis, and PM by Renato Magtubo.
Results by area
Akbayan, Gabriela and Ahon met the 2-percent threshold across all areas — Metro Manila, Luzon outside Metro Manila, the Visayas and Mindanao.
Bayan Muna and Kabataan satisfied the 2-percent rule in all areas, except in Mindanao, where Bayan Muna only got 1.7 percent and Kabataan received none (0 percent).
A Teacher and AT missed the threshold only in Metro Manila (1.2 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively), while Cibac missed it in the Visayas (0 percent).
Butil (11 percent) and Ahonbayan (5 percent) drew their support mostly from respondents in the balance of Luzon; Buhay from Metro Manila (11 percent) and the balance of Luzon (5.6 percent), and Amin and Kakusa, from Mindanao ( 10.3 percent and 7.8 percent, respectively).
Coop-Natcco received most of its votes from the Visayas (4.2 percent) and Mindanao (3.3 percent), while Abakada from Metro Manila (3.7 percent) and Mindanao (5.5 percent).
Results by class
By socioeconomic class, the top five groups — Bayan Muna, Akbayan, Butil, Buhay and Gabriela — along with Ahon, Anakpawis and Abakada, satisfied the 2-percent threshold across all classes ABC, D and E.
A Teacher (1.6 percent), AT (0 percent), Ahonbayan (0 percent), Kabataan (1.6 percent) and Amin (0 percent) missed the threshold among members of class ABC, while Cibac (1.8 percent), Agap (1.2 percent) and Coop-Natcco ( 1.8 percent) missed it in class E.
Kakusa drew much of its support from class E (5.7 percent). Kate Pedroso, Inquirer Research